The Headlines: Week 13...One Step Away

It comes down to the Civil War.

Oregon State survived against Arizona and is now one game away from that coveted Rose Bowl berth.

Not much to say but this is the clearest the picture has been all year in the race for the Roses.

If the Beavers lose next weekend to Oregon, then it's USC to the Rose Bowl. If Oregon State takes the Civil War, then off to Pasadena they go for the first time since 1965.

But what about the other bowl games the Pac-10 has tie-ins to? Let's take a look.

If Oregon State beats Oregon next week, then:

1) USC receives another BCS bid if it beats UCLA
2) California goes to the Holiday Bowl if it beats Washington
3) Oregon goes to the Sun Bowl
4) Arizona goes to either the Las Vegas Bowl or the Emerald Bowl if it beats Arizona State
5) If the Sun Devils win their last two games, then they can go to the Las Vegas Bowl or Emerald Bowl and the Wildcats go to the other game.
6) UCLA gets a bowl bid if it beats ASU and USC, but that's not going to happen.

If the Ducks beat the Beavers, then:
1) USC goes to the Rose Bowl
2) Oregon goes to the Holiday Bowl, via tiebreaker.
3) Oregon State goes to the Sun Bowl
4) Cal goes to the Emerald Bowl
5) Arizona goes to the Las Vegas Bowl, if it beats ASU
6) If the Sun Devils win their last two games, then they go to the Las Vegas Bowl and the Wildcats go to the Hawaii Bowl.
7) UCLA still won't receive a bowl bid.

The Pac-10 does have seven bowl tie-ins, but it looks like only six teams will get bids. The bowl that gets left out is the Pointsetta Bowl. If the Pac-10 sends two teams to the BCS, then the Hawai'i Bowl and the Poinsetta Bowl are left out of the Pac-10 equation.

Next week will clear this all up.

To the headlines:

• Arizona: Cats Skinned by Field Goal
  
• California: The Axe Comes Back to Berkeley
  
• Oregon State: Smelling the Roses
  
• Stanford: Bowl Bid Axed
  
• Washington: Winless Season Cometh
  
• Wazzu: Someone Had to Win
  

The Headlines: Week 12...Coming Into Focus

My buddy who writes for The Daily Californian and went to yesterday's game between California and Oregon State called me while he was at a tailgate. Apparently he was impressed by the Beavers faithful. While there's nothing to do in Corvallis, Ore., the people sure did come out to Resar Stadium.

I would if I bled orange and black.

Oregon State is on the cusp of a Rose Bowl bid, their first since 1965. And with that, of course I expected the entire city of Corvallis to head out and support what was once a bumbling football program.

ABC showed shots of the Resar Stadium crowd holding up signs that said "We can smell the Roses" and something about going to The Rose Bowl for the first time since '65.

But that reminded of a thing the University of California did back in 2004. With the Bears ranked No. 4 in the country and coming off a win in The Big Game, the Cal book store started to sell Rose Bowl commemorative t-shirts.

Oops.

Needless to say, two weeks later, those shirts were selling for more than half off the regular price.

Oregon State fans should be excited. Their team's time has come. Two more wins and it's off to Pasadena.

If I were a Cal fan, I'd want that to happen. Because if the Beavers get to go to the Pac-10's promised land, then USC--still ranked in the top 10 in the BCS--will get a bid to another major bowl, leaving the Bears the (payout for) the Holiday Bowl.

And for me, San Diego is way better than El Paso.

But I wouldn't count on Oregon State winning out. Next week the Beavers play in Tuscon, Ariz., against the Wildcats.

And if you asked Cal, Tuscon is the place where Rose Bowl dreams go to die.

The Headlines:

• Arizona: Whatever Happened to That Defense?
  
• Arizona State: Snore
  
• Cal: Revenge Will Have to Wait
  
• Oregon: Masoli's Pretty Good
  
• Oregon State: Smells Like Roses
  
• Stanford: We Don't Believe in Stanford Football
  
• UCLA: Someone Had to Win
  
• USC: That's What I Call Revenge
  
• Washington: Is it Over Yet?
• Wazzu: Is it Over Yet? Part II
  

Where Do We Go From Here?

I let the dust settle first before I went off about what USC's loss to Oregon State.

I decided to give it a day, because, well, I wanted to gather my thoughts.

There's something that my favorite blogger Dan Shanoff pointed out yesterday; nationally, Southern California is seen not as a choker, like our good friends at THE Ohio State University, but are seen as a team as so cocky and arrogant, that it can't take care of the games that it needs to get to the top of the mountain.

The Buckeyes might get their asses kicked in the big games, but at least they get to the big games.

The Trojans, they haven't had a chance at the BCS title since losing to Texas because USC has lost to Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford and now, Oregon State again, teams seen as inferior in-conference opponents.

Because of this letdown the last couple of years, I don't expect the pollsters to be very kind to USC. If I were voting in any of the polls coming out tomorrow, there is no way I rank the Trojans in the top 25. In effect, USC's BCS hopes are done.

But what does that mean for the rest of the Pac-10?

There are two different strains of thought within the conference itself.

The first and most prevalent, is that any other potential Pac-10 contender is screwed. Here are a few text messages I got from friends Thursday night: "Wtf? I have no idea," "Looks like (Mike) Riley owns the Pac-10," "Jesus Christ," "Is this really happening?" "Shit," "There goes the Pac-10's credibility."

The thought for a long time for teams like California, Oregon, Arizona State and any other contender in one single season has been that USC was going to beat them, USC was going to run the table, get into the BCS and the runner-up in the Pac-10 would go to that promise land known as The Rose Bowl.

That seriously was the case when the No. 4 Bears finished second to No. 1 USC in 2004, but got screwed by the the BCS system.

Now, with the Trojans' BCS title game hopes all but dashed, so is the rest of the teams' hopes of getting to the Rose Bowl. Why? Because we still all know that SC has all the talent in the world. A loss like this should refocus the Trojans and they should take out their anger on the rest of the Pac-10.

Another Rose Bowl appearance for USC seems all but inevitable.

But, to steal a phrase from Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.

The second strain of thought and the one that is less prevalent is, well, if Oregon State can knock off the Trojans, then shouldn't anyone be able to knock off the Trojans?

We all are not sure that USC can run the table the rest of the season. Sure, all of its (what-should-have-been) toughest opponents play at the Coliseum: Cal, Oregon, Arizona State and yeah, even Ohio State payed them a visit earlier this year.

But if lowly Stanford can cut through the mystique of the Coliseum, then, should the likes of the Bears, Ducks, and Devils be able to too?

And for teams like Cal, Oregon and ASU, which don't have a loss in-conference yet, the goal is simple: they have to run the table, which includes beating the Trojans, and if they do, well, then the Football Monopoly in The Rose Bowl Game (to borrow a phrase from our friends in Westwood) is Over.

It's easier to type this out than to do it. But really, it's sport. Anything can happen.

And at this point, wouldn't it be refreshing to not see USC in the BCS, kind of like not seeing the Yankees in the playoffs or not seeing Brett Favre be a douche in Green Bay.

We can only dream.